Input
288 Match Results
Every Premier League scoreline this season
Step 1
Recency Weighting
Recent matches count more · 70-day half-life exponential decay
Step 2 — Dixon-Coles Model
Poisson Regression
Finds the attack & defence ratings that best explain all the scorelines · applies a low-score correction for 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1
Rating
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored relative to league average
Rating
🛡️ Defence
Goals conceded relative to league average
Rating
⭐ Overall
Attack ÷ Goals conceded rate · higher = stronger · 1.0 = average
Step 3 — Monte Carlo
10,000 Simulations
Each of the 89 remaining fixtures is simulated using Poisson distributions · every simulation produces a full final table · includes home advantage factor
Output
Predicted Points
Average finish across all 10,000 runs
Output
Title %
% of simulations where team finishes 1st
Output
Rel %
% of simulations where team finishes 18th–20th
